Global Trade Poised for Historic $33 Trillion Surge in 2024, But Tariff Uncertainty Threatens Growth Global trade is poised to achieve a historic $33 trilion in 2024, marking a signifcant milestone despite ongoing economic and geopoliticalchalenges, The United Nations conference on Trade and Development (UNcTADl revealed on Thurdav that alobal trade is expected togrow by 3.39% this year, with services trade playing a key role. However this record performance may be shortlived as rising risks, includingtrade wars and shifting policies, threaten to cloud the outlook for 2025.According to UNCTAD's latest Global Trade Update, the projected $33 trilion trade volume for 2024 represents a $1 trilion increase ovel2023. A maior contributor to this arowth was the trade in services, which surged by 79, accounting for half of the total expansion and addingan additional $500 bilion to the global trade value. In contrast, trade in goods grew by only 2%, faling short of its 2022 peak.While the performance for 2024 shows reslience, concerns are mounting for 2025, driven primarly by potential policy shifts in the UnitedStates. UNCTAD warned that the outlook for next year is uncertain, paricularly due to the possibility of broader tarffs under the incoming Usadministraton, such changes could disruot olobal value chains, impact key trading partners, and tioger retaliatory measures, furthedestablizing the global trading system. Even the mere threat of tariffs, according to UNCTAD, can create unpredictability, undermining tradeinvestment, and economic growth. Countries most vulnerable to shifts in Us trade policy are those with large trade surpluses with the Us, such as China, lndia, the furopeanUnion, and Vietnam, The UN body highlighted that these countnes, which have higher tarif barriers, could face significant challengesAdditionaly, other nations with substantial trade surpluses like Canada, Japan, Mexico, and South Korea, even though they have lower tariffDarriers or established trade aareements, are not immune to the risks. Adding to the uncertainty is the future traiectory of the Us dolar and macroeconomic policy shifts, which are likely to infuence global tradedynamics. In the third quarter of 2024, developed economies led the growth, buoyed by stable demand and favorable business conditions. Howeverdevelooing economles, tradlionaly strong drvers of olobal trade, faced cha enges, south-south trade saw a decine. and imports irdeveloping regions contracted. The energy sector alo experienced setbacks, with trade in energy down by 2% in 03 and 7% over the yearSimilarly, metals trade shrank by 3%, and the automotive sector recorded a 3% drop in 03, despite an expected 4% annual growthOn a more positive note, high-growth sectors like information and communications technologies CT) and apparel saw strong growth, rising13% and 14%, respectively, in the third quarter. Recionall, japan saw a notable increase in exports, with a 5% rise in goods exports and a 13% annualiumo in services exports, The UnitecStates also recorded a 4% rise in merchandise imports, The European Union sustained its growth in services trade, with positive projectionsfor the year. However, developing economies like China and india faced chalenges. China's goods exports dropped by 2% in Q3, although its servicessector saw a 9% rise, lindia also experienced quarterly decines in goods trade but posted modest annual gains. Trade in East Asila largewstalled, with flat imports and a slight 1% growth in exports.UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan emphasized the importance of strategic policy action in developing economies to diversiftrade and invest in high-value sectors. "rade remains a cornerstone of sustainable development" she stated. "To seize opportunities in 2025developing economies need coordinated support to navigate uncertainty,reduce dependencies, and strengthen their inks to global markets. https://www.chemanalyst.com/NewsAndDeals/NewsDetails/trade-poised-for-historic-33-trillion-surge-in-2024-but-tariff-uncertainty-threatens-31989